Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

141
FXAK69 PAFG 190920
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
120 AM AKDT Mon May 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
More active weather continues over the N Mainland today into
Tuesday as an arctic trough brings accumulating snowfall to the
Brooks Range and Arctic Coast. More showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible today over the E Interior, and that
chance will continue into Tuesday before the low weakens and it
begins to warm slightly again midweek. Some heavier showers are
likely across parts of the Interior, especially late this evening
into Tuesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers will continue over the Lower Tanana Valley and Upper
Koyukuk through the day as a front slowly moves east. Afternoon
showers will once again develop across higher terrain and drift
northward, with isolated thunderstorms possible from the White
Mtns eastward, and down into the SE Interior/E Alaska Range.
Fairbanks should be stable enough for only regular showers,
although a few may be heavier showers at times. Monday night,
showers may congeal into a band of more organized and heavier rain
showers, from Fairbanks to the Chena Rec Area, before moving
north. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact placement
of that band of heavier showers, though. Heading into Wednesday,
activity slowly winds down with less organized showers and
continued chances for isolated thunderstorms over the higher
elevations of the E Interior.

- More showers today, with locally heavier showers possible
  through tonight, across the Central and E Interior.

- Isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday, east of Fairbanks to
  the ALCAN border. Today looks to be the most unstable day with
  the better chance for thunderstorms from the E AK Range north,
  and across the Fortymile/Yukon-Tanana Uplands.

West Coast and Western Interior...
North winds and colder air filtering south will continue through
tonight. Light snow showers across coastal regions slowly
dissipate today. The northerly gradient will continue all the way
into midweek, with bouts of low stratus and fog possible for
coastal regions. Over the Interior, isolated to scattered shower
threats continue through Wed, especially during the afternoon and
evening periods.

- North winds to 25 to 35 mph across coastal regions through
  Wednesday, with gradual drying. Bouts of stratus and fog will
  remain possible.

- Temps remain below seasonal norms for most of the region through
  Wed, although gradually moderating.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
The big story will be increasing snow moving into the Dalton Hwy
and E Arctic Coast from the, including Prudhoe Bay, through Tue
night. Snowfall will come in rounds, with the first this morning
from Atqasuk to Prudhoe Bay. More substantial snowfall moves
across the Brooks Range and into the E Arctic/Prudhoe Bay this
evening through Tue, with rounds of heavier snowfall at times. We
are currently expecting 3 to 5 inches for the Dalton Hwy Corridor
north of the Brooks Range, with 4 to 10 inches possible for
Brooks Range higher elevations, including Atigun. The W Arctic to
Utqiagvik will only see north winds, some patchy fog, but no snow
accumulations as the band of snowfall will be fairly narrow.

- Accumulating snowfall for the Dalton Hwy Corridor and Prudhoe
  Bay, with 3 to 5 inches, and upwards of 8 inches possible for
  Atigun Pass, through Tue night.

- A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for the Dalton
  Hwy Corridor from Atigun to Sagwon. A Winter storm product may
  be needed if confidence raises in locally heavy snow.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
There is a 519 dam arctic low stretching from the North Pole all
the way down into the Chukchi Sea. Colder arctic air is
infiltrating into the West Coast from this low. There is a
secondary upper low stationed over the W Interior, with a cool
front centered over the Central Interior. A cold front is moving
east across the E Arctic with snow behind this front moving across
the N Slope and Brooks Range. A Gulf of AK low is centered near
Haida Gwaii with weak shortwave troughs rotating around it and
into the Yukon Territory. With broad southerly flow aloft, showers
and clouds continue to move across the AK Range and into the
Interior, and up toward the Brooks Range this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum RH values continue to be stubbornly low over the far E
Interior, and this will continue today as they bottom out into
the lower 20 % range across the lower elevations of the Fortymile.
Otherwise, it is damper everywhere else with values of 40 % or
higher, along with chances for wetting rains through tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms today will also be over the drier regions
from the White Mtns eastward, and down into the E AK Range and SE
Interior. Minimum RH moderates Tue over the Interior up into the
35+ % range, with lower coverage of showers heading into Wed.
Isolated thunderstorms will remain a threat over the higher
elevations of the E Interior Tue and Wed, but instability values
are lower than today. Out west, north winds dominate coastal areas
with cooler and damper weather with showers all the way through
midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant current concerns as breakup on the Lower Yukon has
already passed, with degraded ice in place near the mouth.
However, while water levels have risen slightly, there are no
concerns for flooding. Elsewhere, smaller tributaries like the
Porcupine have yet to breakup. Snowmelt will continue to rise
water levels over the Chena Basin, but there are no concerns for
flooding as snowmelt continues to be gradual.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The global suite of numerical weather models, as well as global
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning models, all continue
to depict a similar upper air pattern over AK Thu through the
weekend. A deep Gulf low is projected to dive across the Gulf
with a weakening of the current Mainland trough. This should allow
for weak ridging over the E Mainland. Temps are moderating out
west with slightly warming temps over the E Interior, along with
continued afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorm chances.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811-812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher